2018: The Year The Country Stood Still (In The EU)

I've been away for a bit, mostly because I was blogging in circles; "Trump is a narcissistic prat" and "Our Government are clueless morons ruled by the right wing press." The cartoon says it all, really. The questions to ask are, what's happening now? And what can we do about it?

 What's happening now?

The BBC website lays it out:

The UK is due to leave the European Union on 29 March, 2019 - it's the law, regardless of whether there is a deal with the EU or not. Stopping Brexit would require a change in the law in the UK. The European Court of Justice ruled on 10 December 2018 that the UK could cancel the Article 50 Brexit process without the permission of the other 27 EU members, and remain a member of the EU on its existing terms, provided the decision followed a "democratic process". Prime Minister Theresa May has warned Conservative MPs thinking of voting against the deal she has reached with the EU that they risk "no Brexit at all". This is a reference to another referendum, which is backed by the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru the Green Party, a small number of Conservatives and larger group of Labour MPs, who want the public to be given the final say, with the option to remain in the EU. They are trying to get the Labour leadership to back them - but Jeremy Corbyn [leader of the Labour Party, the main opposition party] wants to try and force a general election first.

The Department for Exiting the European Union has a list of policy papers, etc., few of which are of any value in terms of providing useful information. It's basically back-covering. They don't really have a plan for how to ensure continuity of services.

If it were up to me, we'd remain, then try to unpick the network of treaties we've made with the EU over the years, keep the stuff we like, then get rid of the stuff we don't. Brexiters aren't interested in details, that's why they never provide them when asked.

Her Majesty's Government are marking time till the clock runs down, when Parliament can vote to take or leave the deal Theresa May thrashed out with the EU. This is just the terms of our divorce and guarantees continuity of services until the new trade agreement with the EU has been ratified. Brexiters don't like it because it leaves the ball in the EU's court; they've not conceded a thing, really. Remainers don't like it because we'd rather have a say in EU policy decisions, a feature we lose after Brexit. Basically, there's not a cat in hell's chance of getting it through Parliament and Labour is too hidebound in ideological considerations to be, well, logical.

What can we do about it?

We're screwed unless we can get a People's Vote on the table to kill Brexit once and for all. Then we can get some breathing space and address the discontent that caused the country to shoot itself in the foot. We are, of course, assuming we've got the numbers to reverse Brexit. What if we don't? It's really not as simple as that, per the Independent.

But there is one problem: if a second vote is to be held, what would the question be?
This is more complicated than it sounds. There are a variety of options, but all have serious problems and would be unlikely to keep everyone happy.

People's Vote question: the options

Leave or remain? This question repeats the same mistakes as the last vote: what does “leave” actually mean? Leave options include a "Norway" or "Canada" (that's CETA, people) deal (soft Brexit), cutting all ties (cliff edge*), or some kind of bodge-up wherein we retain ties of some kind. We can't just ask people if they want to leave. We need to ask them what "leave" means to them and explain what will happen if they choose any of those options.

Remain, Theresa May’s deal, or No deal? Seems logical until you realise it splits the Leave vote between Tess's deal and Cliff Edge, handing a win to Remain by default. I like this idea but imagine the whingeing on the Leave side. Besides, Theresa May's deal is not a deal, it's the terms under which we withdraw. The new trading, etc., regime with the EU has yet to be negotiated — and agreed.

There's a range of permutations and delivery options where these questions are concerned but remember, the problems created by Leave were due to them outright lying to the people and not providing details of what "leave" actually means for them. Unless we fully and comprehensively educate the public on the pros and cons of the options available to them we're just setting ourselves up for another fall. I'm willing to take a chance on this if only to give the people a chance to prove they've changed their minds about leaving. I'm just hoping there's enough of them.

*Those clever types who deny that the cliff edge is a problem cite retaining ties as a solution, just so you know. What they won't address is the impact of no deal of any kind.