To understand how such unutterably blatant corruption and abuse of power can result in a shrug of indifference from a party that formerly stood for the rule of law and upholding traditional values, you have to dig into its history. Basically, it began as a somewhat liberal/progressive movement and has morphed into a right wing fascist cabal in a desperate effort to remain in power. It is this desire for power at any price that drives their entrenchment of extremism and divisiveness even as they whine about being unfairly represented in the mainstream media as divisive extremists.
What will happen next?
The divisive extremism has been very effective at splitting public opinion between Cult of Trump and his dissenters. It's the cult of personality built around Trump that makes the situation hard to predict. Why?
- He has given the most reprehensible people the opportunity to come forward and openly display their racism.
- He has normalised callous indifference to the suffering of the children he has caged.
- He has normalised casual corruption and self-dealing.
- He has abused his power to smear a political rival.
His base will not desert him
That he could do all that in the teeth of bitter opposition and continue to do so is seen as a sign of strength among his base. They have been energised by the impeachment proceedings and are more supportive than ever. Any criticism of the Dear Leader, however packed with facts and evidence is summarily dismissed as fake news. When they see former members of his inner circle break ranks and get hammered for it, they're not worried about it, fearing it may happen to them if they disagree with the status quo, they join in. They fully expect him to romp back to the White House in the next election, citing every failure as a massive success. The consolidation of the right wing media and the echo chamber mentality that results from this means his supporters will faithfully vote for him in November. But will there be enough of them to get him back in?
The opposition is growing
Prominent Republicans are now recommending voting for Democrats to oust Trump. The Democrats oppose Trump on principle and there's a resistance movement dedicated to getting him out in November. That's all well and good but this much-vaunted support comes at a price: what they're willing to vote for is basically old school Republican, Reagan edition. If they abstain because Bernie Sanders gets the Democrat nomination, Trump will get back in by default. Worried Democrats are already working on a plan to thwart democracy keep him out. Here's the problem: many of the people who voted for Trump voted for change, not business as usual. So if Biden wins the nomination the Never Trumpers will be happy, but the kind of people who voted for Trump before will vote for him again because turning back the tide of immigrants and upsetting the elites is more important than getting kids out of cages and maintaining America's alliances.
Meanwhile, in Trumplandia...
Assuming the vote to acquit goes to plan, Trump will be emboldened to ever increasingly appalling conduct, unfettered by the threat of removal.
Prediction
Trump's behaviour and horrible policies will continue and will get worse. Members of his base will peel away as his antics become more erratic. Until the right wing cabal that backs him withdraws its support he will continue to be popular.
His opponents will have to choose between paying attention to people's concerns and satisfying their ideological positions.
Since I was wrong about the last election I won't bet on the next one. We can only pray that the American people will rediscover their common human decency.
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