Many of my predictions for 2019 were off but I was right about a couple of things. Let's take a look at what happened.
The Year In Review
Last year was dominated by Brexit, Trump, Johnson, Russian shenanigans, Jeremy Corbyn, fake news, the noticeable bias of the BBC towards the British Conservative Party, and the increase in media siloing. My blogging output plummeted to an all-time low because I felt stuck in a treadmill and didn't want to spend my time repeating myself.
On a personal note, I changed my job and cooked the main course for my church's monthly Shared Lunch: Chicken in Mango, Lime and Coconut sauce. This was a first for me as I'd never cooked for that many people before. The dish proved to be so popular I did it again later on that year.
January
My first post predicted the demise of Brexit; boy, was I wrong about that! I'd based my prediction on the absolute thumping former PM Theresa May got in the Commons after trying several times to get her Withdrawal Bill through. In the end, Boris Johnson, whose deal is much worse than May's, got his bill through after purging opponents of his policies from the party. Britain's own Night of the Long Knives saw party grandee and Father of the House Kenneth Clarke get his marching orders. While some people thought the party would pay for it at December 6th's General Election, it seems to have achieved Boris Johnson's aim of getting a thumping majority and public support for Brexit.
March
A status update on Twitter brought the plight of the working homeless to my attention. Homelessness and poverty in general have become major bugbears for me; the complete indifference of the Tories to their suffering has made me more committed to working on ways to assist the various charities we have but honestly, the problem is systemic, and that's where the solution is. Charity can only ever put a plaster on the wound; we need to deal with the causes.
The plight of the Palestinians was also brought to my attention as various factions fought for dominance of the narrative. In some quarters, support for them was conflated with antisemitism. America's continuing pro-Israel interventions are making matters worse. As Foreign Policy magazine pointed out later on that year, the two-state solution is now unworkable due to the increase in illegal Israeli settlement-building on contested land. The Palestinians are being squeezed to the point where they'll either be assimilated or dispersed.
July
I revelled in the news that Boris Johnson had replaced Theresa May as Prime Minister, and gleefully predicted the collapse of his government due to his stubborn incompetence. I was wrong, of course. Instead of people laying the blame at his government's door for austerity, they blamed their troubles on the EU and lobbed him back into power in December that year.
December
In my last post of the year, I bemoaned the gullibility of the British people, who put Boris back in office to "Get Brexit Done." How sad is it that no matter how many lies you tell, repeating silly slogans will get you elected to the highest office in the land? It doesn't help that the right wing press is more popular than the left-leaning press and that both sides were bashing the crap out of Jeremy Corbyn, painting the ineffectual Labour leader as the BFF of terrorists, antisemites, and Satan.
Last Year's Predictions
I said "I'm applying for a team leader job at work."
What happened: my superiors yanked me around for a while with promises of courses, etc., before they finally admitted there was no way they'd support my being trained for a position outside the Manchester call centre, where advancement is limited. I started looking for other jobs and found the one I have now with dwell Student Living as D&A coordinator. I'm effectively the Compliance Manager for Health & Safety, ensuring all documents are in and properly filed and acted upon. It's just as well I left when I did as many of my colleagues lost their jobs when Thomas Cook collapsed.
I said "The Government will try to stave off collapse as it tries to keep HMS Brexit afloat but will keep a close eye on the right wing press for cues..."
What happened: the right wing press kept pushing for Brexit, refusing to admit it was a lost cause and playing down the (as yet unreleased) Russia Report where it was alleged that they were stoking support for Brexit on social media. May was ousted and replaced by Boris Johnson in June. The general election resulted in a landslide for the Tories -- and for Brexit.
I said "The EU's Copyright Directive will be seized upon by Brexiteers as an example of Brussels bullying in a last-ditch effort to stave off its inevitable defeat..."
What happened: the polar opposite. Britain actually voted for the damn thing despite what Boris Johnson said.
I said "CETA will come front and centre as its realities include referral to the EU court of justice for deciding on whether it fits the existing legal framework... The UK will continue to nosedive on the world stage."
What happened: CETA slunk to the back of the queue in terms of things we thought were important. The UK became more closely aligned with America and increased arms sales to Middle East despots.
I said Robert Mueller will come under increasing pressure to complete the job of bringing the Trump government down...
What happened: Trump was finally impeached in December. The Democrats have not taken over; the GOP still holds the Senate. They're currently waiting for an opportune time to hold the Senate trial, which would see him removed if convicted. Democrats are not freaking out about the economy, national debt, or deficit. Billy Graham's Christianity Today has pulled support for Trump, though his son Franklin publicly supports the embattled US president.
I said "The Tories... may well swing left..."
What happened: They have repeatedly promised more public spending but their promises are hollow and misleading.
I said "China will move to centre stage position, eclipsing America as the de facto world leader. Expect more authoritarianism. South Korea will continue to shmooze North Korea until they reach a detente. Trump will be frozen out of this even while he tries to take credit for it."
What happened: China has increased its soft power to the point where it's getting harder to stand up to them. Given that they're a major trading partner with... everyone, really... there's no easy way to push back against them. This comments says it all:
The response of the international community has been somewhat lackluster. - 9 questions about the Hong Kong protests you were too embarrassed to ask, by Jen Kirby for Vox
North Korea/South Korea relations are deteriorating due to North Korean aggression, and, as usual, Trump isn't helping.
I said "The siloing of the media will continue until it reaches critical mass. A backlash will force a challenge to the status quo in which a few global entities control the world's media; expect sudden, radical change as new regimes force a breakup of the biggest companies."
What happened: The siloing continued as media companies got more shmoozy with their favourite politicians. Prompted by accusations of bias towards others, they went overboard to accommodate right-wingers, who still weren't satisfied. The political divide has become more pronounced with the Right overtly proclaiming the alleged illegitimacy of their opponents.
The year to come
2019 was indeed a game-changer but my ill-advised optimism left me unequipped to foresee that the righward push would continue. Bearing that in mind, here are my predictions for next year.
USA - Trump will be cleared by the GOP-held Senate despite being an outright crook. The Democrats will win the next election, led by Elizabeth Warren. Front-runner Joe Biden has been compromised by the taint of scandal RE: Ukraine despite the allegations about him and his son being basically hearsay. While Warren is a frequent target of Trump's ire she is also experienced and level-headed. If the Democrats take over both Houses, expect a leftward shift.
UK - Boris Johnson will tie us more closely to the USA and Donald Trump, but the shifty opportunist will back whichever horse looks to be winning the US election in November this year. If Trump gets a second term (it's possible for as long as the right wing press continue to support him), UK policies (and politics!) will more closely mirror those of the US. Boris's tight grip of his party will ensure the success of his government in terms of remaining in power. Expect Fascism to become more overt. Expect the Russia Report to be delayed, then come out with a lot of redactions that basically whitewash the Tories.
Brexit - the push-and-pull of the No Deal crowd V the Remain/Resistance faction will either lead us into an extended transition period or a sharp drop. Boris will continue to push a narrative in which the EU is dictating UK policy while they try to maintain order. Expected result: a softer Brexit than anticipated while Scotland screams for independence and Northern Ireland moves closer to reunification with the Republic of Ireland. This depends on the Paramilitaries switching to a hearts-and-minds strategy instead of violence. Expect more violent incidents as the people work out what they want for their future.
Ireland - border checks will prove problematic unless Boris can find a way to smooth the wrinkles. The EU will try to shield Ireland from the worst but expect Boris and Leo Varadkar to have a lot of meetings while they try to sort out trade -- and the possibility of Ireland's reunification taking place later on in the decade.
IPR - while the push to expand copyright lengths has been running out of steam, expect the EU's Copyright Directive to cause problems for us as people find they can't post as easily as before. As usual, people will find ways around it but they may have to backtrack.
Conclusion:
2019 was the year the game changed; foreign powers wielded unprecedented influence in our elections by posting comments, etc., on social media to win support for right wing causes. In 2020, expect the worldwide right wing coup to claim a few more scalps; Bolivian former president Evo Morales is either a hero or a villain depending on where you get your news sources from. One thing is certain: history is going to repeat itself in a massive way until the dam bursts again -- unless we're willing to learn from it. In a world in which repeating slogans and headlines is more than enough to sway the minds of the masses, I can't see that happening. Can you?
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